Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 41.306056 48.774217 56.951765 66.537274 77.430049 89.387805 103.470828
2024-12-22 27.431290 36.560447 47.552210 61.621225 78.997346 99.593891 125.677577
2024-12-29 22.069252 32.240699 45.383030 63.305972 86.770301 116.075621 155.022498
2025-01-05 17.653843 27.995933 42.215301 62.692761 90.846025 127.552438 178.275181
2025-01-12 15.827892 26.854625 42.799738 66.779554 101.032299 147.191081 212.887558
2025-01-19 12.383689 22.665757 38.388156 63.172941 100.050347 151.504083 227.019705
2025-01-26 11.009142 21.433904 38.106946 65.386492 107.285015 167.325090 257.519209
2025-02-02 10.329626 21.215197 39.307675 69.853195 118.024782 188.588322 296.627355
2025-02-09 9.287950 20.178693 39.018590 71.867089 125.078863 204.766205 329.110678
2025-02-16 8.251580 18.969080 38.261558 72.978589 130.698640 218.989993 359.272217
2025-02-23 7.206482 17.557810 36.960426 72.999937 134.484236 230.514225 385.805048
2025-03-02 6.047585 15.704267 34.616293 70.954804 134.661329 236.355674 403.843827
2025-03-09 5.203120 14.467466 33.473145 71.304366 139.515008 250.847762 437.637616
2025-03-16 3.949058 12.035732 29.674275 66.430600 135.124859 250.445441 448.470676
2025-03-23 3.506259 11.419633 29.450235 68.248334 142.577820 269.779563 491.670130
2025-03-30 2.940502 10.341169 28.063620 67.597197 145.447347 281.519252 522.995554
2025-04-06 2.795636 10.364155 29.110251 71.947221 157.852587 310.102971 583.337774
2025-04-13 2.174727 8.847953 26.373637 68.108572 154.424332 311.009279 597.330761
2025-04-20 1.980925 8.567923 26.535831 70.464802 163.101836 333.620929 649.066782
2025-04-27 1.919072 8.700224 27.738921 75.216931 176.802457 365.827493 718.525614
2025-05-04 1.743277 8.398640 27.785504 77.358483 185.377998 389.109261 773.331505
2025-05-11 1.549108 7.972124 27.435045 78.540176 192.049498 409.172976 823.219521
2025-05-18 1.338949 7.413725 26.632546 78.562869 196.290780 424.881968 865.941633